Showing posts with label Preview. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Preview. Show all posts

Saturday, June 28, 2014

World Cup predictions

Everyone knows that predictions are a fools game, but we also know that there is nothing else to do when there isn’t football on that awful day after the group stages. So, just for fun, here is the way I see it going.

Second round

Brazil v Chile
Arguably the tie of the round and as the hosts enter the ‘must win’ territory of the knock0out phase the pressure will grow by the minute. Chile’s best chance is to hold off the early surge from Neymar and others, and try and keep the ball like they did so well in the group stage. If they can get to 60 minutes at 0-0 then the pressure might force Brazil into something silly. I don’t think they will be able to, but I don’t expect Brazil to win by any more than 1 goal.

Columbia v Uruguay
Without the only player who looked like a threat in front of goal (albeit against a schoolboy English defence) the Uruguayans will almost certainly not be strong enough for the all-conquering Columbians. The speed with which they move both the ball and themselves has already left their group opponents mesmerised, and I expect the same here. Comfortable win for the Columbians.

Netherlands v Mexico
Netherlands haven’t really had a tough match yet, other than for about 30 minutes combined they cruised through the group stage. Mexico have already parked the bus effectively against Brazil, and their best chance in this match will be doing the same again. Whether they can resist the temptation to go forward if the Dutch sit deep, inviting the counter, will be interesting to see. Expect the Netherlands to win, but it might not be done in 90 minutes.

Costa Rica v Greece
This could be an interesting game of style over substance, with the Greeks packing the midfield and their well-drilled defence, while the Costa Ricans looked good going forward against poor group opposition without being tested really at the back. This could end up being played mostly in the middle third of the pitch, and watch how soon the Greeks start playing for penalties. It’ll probably come down to a moment of brilliance or an error, and both circumstances favour the Costa Ricans.

France v Nigeria
France made enough changes in their last group game to come back fresh for this, and will the Nigerians have already put in their best performance in the loss to Argentina. I expect them to cause the French some problems, and if they score the first goal they might just cause a big upset. Having said that if France play like they did in the first two games, especially attack like they did against Switzerland it could be a rugby score. France to win, but not without difficulties.

Germany v Algeria
While Algeria might just be happy to be here I fancy them to cause the Germans some real problems, especially on the counter attack. Having said that Germany should have enough to see them off, don’t be surprised though if it’s very tight for the first 70 minutes.

Argentina v Switzerland
Argentina will win this without too many problems. Switzerland will be organised at the back but that won’t stop Messi if he brings anything like his top game. I don’t think the Swiss showed enough against the best team in their group to give an indication that they might even run Argentina close, so I expect this to be fairly comfortable.

Belgium v USA
I’ll start with an old cliché; either of these teams could win this game. The USA managed to get through despite losing to Germany and the Belgians never really got out of third gear in their group, despite winning all three games. If they can move into top gear then they’ll have enough to beat the USA, but they haven’t shown any sign of doing that yet, and a well-drilled USA side should have enough to reach the last 8.

I’ll update the predictions after the next round, but here is the way I see it going, at this stage.

Quarter finals

Brazil v Columbia
France v Germany
Netherlands v Costa Rica
Argentina v USA

Semi finals

Columbia v Germany
Netherlands v Argentina

Final

Columbia v Argentina


Winners: COLUMBIA

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Washington Nationals v Chicago White Sox preview


The background

It's been a funny start to the season for Washington. Many people expect them to win more games than any team in the National League, and almost as many think they'll win the World Series (I have a healthy pessimism borne from watching Ipswich Town as well as the Nats, I don't think anything until it happens). They started off against the worst team in their division by a mile, and promptly swept the Miami Marlins 3-0 at home. Although they made light work of the Fish, shutting them out for the first two games, they never really looked that comfortable on the offence, except Bryce Harper who is already awesome.

The weekend series in Cincinnati brought us back down to earth as Dan Haren got beaten up on Friday night and Stephen Strasburg took more of a beating than usual on Sunday as the Nats dropped 2 of 3 in the Great American (Sm)Ball Park (silent B, it works).

So we come back to Nationals Park for the first taste of interleague action and the first series with the other good team in the National League East. This will be the first time that that Chicago White Sox have provided the opposition since June 2011, when wins from Collin Balester and Livan Hernandez recorded the wins as the Nats took 2 out of 3. The game they lost in that series will be repeated tonight as Jake Peavy goes against Gio Gonzalez.  

The pitchers

Gio had a pretty good outing first time round when he faced the Marlins. He tossed 91 pitches over 6 innings giving up 2 hits, walking 2 and striking out 5. The only problem continues to be his command, especially of his fastball, as he threw just 55 of his pitches for strikes. He then helped his own cause with a solo Home Run.

Zimmermann looked impressive in the final game against the Marlins, although he was the only pitcher to concede a run as Justin Ruggiano took him deep in the second inning. Zimmermann threw 89 pitches in his 6 innings with 60 for strikes as he allowed 8 hits, and walked 2 while striking out just 1.

Haren had by far the worst debut of the rotation, as he was chased from the game in Cincinnati after just 4 innings and he threw 78 pitches (58 for strikes) giving up 6 runs, all earned on 9 hits, 4 of them homers and striking out 5. About the only nice thing to say is that he didn’t walk anyone. Zach Duke and Henry Rodriguez also got pounded during the 15-0 loss though.

The keys

·         Get the offence going – even when winning their first 3 home games of the year the Nats failed to really get any offence going. If they can get on the board early and often, without relying on Harper, they’ll be in business.
·         Get the easy outs – Ian Desmond punted a couple of times during the loss against the Reds on Sunday, and you can’t afford to let people get on base, especially with Zimmermann and Haren on the mound.
·         Keep Bryce hot – the 20 year-old wonderkid is 9-25 so far this year (.360) with 3 Home Runs. Every time he goes to the plate at the minute you expect him to score. He needs to keep that going until the others can catch him up.
·         Seal the deal – on Saturday the Nats gave up four runs over the 8th and 9th innings to take themselves into extra innings before getting the win. Again on Sunday when they were on top they let it slip to lose 6-3.

The stats

Because this is an interleague game, there are naturally not many previous encounters to draw on, so the sample sizes for all are small. But for what it’s worth, here are the White Sox numbers against the 3 Nats pitchers pencilled to go this week.


Gio Gonzalez (Tuesday)
Jordan Zimmermann (Wednesday
Dan Haren (Thursday)
Tyler Flowers
-
-
0-2, K
Paul Konerko
1-12, 3BB, 4K
0-3
7-19, HR, 3K
Gordon Beckham
1-4, BB
1-3, K
0-7, 2K
Alexi Ramirez
3-11, 3BB, K
1-3
2-8
Jeff Keppinger
-
-
8-16, 2x2B, HR, 2BB
Dayan Viciedo
0-3, 2K
-
0-4, K
Alejandro De Aza
-
-
1-6, K
Alex Rios
3-15, BB, 3K
2-6
6-20, HR, BB, 3K
Adam Dun
0-1, BB
0-3, 2K
2-15, HR, 2BB, 7K

And here are the Nats batters numbers against the 3 White Sox due to go. The two which are closest to being worthy of attention here are Denard Span who bats a shade under .500 against Gavin Floyd and Chad Tracy who bats .200 in 50 trips against Peavy, with 7 of those hits going for extra bases. This will be the first time that any of the Nats batters have seen Dylan Axelrod as he starts his third year.


Jake Peavy (Tuesday)
Gavin Floyd (Wednesday)
Dylan Axelrod (Thursday)
Denard Span
5-17, 4x2B
17-35, 2B, 3B, 7BB, 3K
-
Jayson Werth
2-13, 7K
-
-
Bryce Harper
-
-
-
Ryan Zimmerman
3-15, 2x2B
1-6, 2K
-
Adam LaRoche
4-11, HR, 3BB, 4K
2-8, 2B, HR, 3BB, 2K
-
Ian Desmond
2-4, 2K
1-3
-
Danny Espinosa
0-1, K
-
-
Kurt Suzuki
0-3
1-10, 2BB, 3K
-
Wilson Ramos
-
-
-
Chad Tracy
10-50 3x2B, 3B, 2HR, 3BB, 16K
1-3
-